据油价网8月15日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)连续第二个月预测美国页岩油产量将下降，预计9月份页岩油总产量将从本月的943.5万桶/天降至941.5万桶/天。

7月份，EIA还预测美国页岩油产量将在8月份下降，本月平均产量为939.7万桶/天，低于7月份的941.5万桶/天。

产量预测在一定程度上是基于不同页岩区的钻机数量，这可能不像EIA所说的那么重要。业内高管表示，在这个财报季，他们的油井产量超过了预期，这有效地降低了钻机数量与产量的相关性。

在早些时候的一份报告中，EIA预测美国今年的石油总产量将达到1280万桶/天，原因是该行业报告的油井生产率高于预期。EIA还指出，油价上涨是提高产量的动力，预计2023年和2024年的平均水平将达到历史最高水平。

目前尚不清楚这与近期页岩油产量下降的预期是否相符，因为页岩油是美国石油产量的最大来源。此外，公司可能会看到现有油井的产量高于预期，但他们肯定不会像前几年那样疯狂钻井，这确实表明短期内产量大幅增长的潜力有限。

美国石油产量的下降肯定会影响全球油价，而且影响的程度比以前更大，因为美国石油是布伦特原油基准的一部分，出口也处于历史高位。

然而，稳定但适度增长的产量不会对价格产生如此重大的影响，但会通过提高生产商的利润而使其受益。很有可能，生产商很清楚这一点。

寿琳玲 译自 油价网

原文如下：

EIA Sees Lower Shale Oil Production In September

For the second month in a row, the Energy Information Administration has forecast a decline in U.S. shale oil output, seeing the total falling to 9.415 million bpd in September, from 9.435 million bpd this month.

In July, the EIA also forecast that U.S. shale oil output will decline in August, seeing the average for this month at 9.397 million bpd, down from July’s 9.415 million bpd.

The production forecast is, in part, based on rig counts in different shale plays, which may not be as significant a fact as the EIA suggests.  Industry executives said during this earnings season that their wells were producing more than expected, which has effectively reduced the relevance of the rig count for production numbers.

In an earlier report, the EIA predicted that total U.S. oil production this year will hit 12.8 million bpd, citing the same higher-than-expected well productivity that the industry reported.  The EIA also noted higher oil prices as motivation for higher production, saying the 2023 and the expected 2024 average would be record numbers.

How that squares with expectations of lower shale output in the immediate term is unclear since shale is the biggest contributor to the country’s total.  Also, companies may be seeing higher-than-expected production from existing wells but they are certainly not on a well-drilling spree like in previous years, which does suggest limited potential for substantial production growth over the short term.

Lower U.S. production would certainly affect global prices, and to a greater extent than before now that U.S. oil is part of the Brent benchmark and exports are running at record highs.

However, production that is growing stably but modestly would not have such a major impact on prices but will benefit producers by boosting their profits.  Chances are, producers are well aware of that.