据彭博社2023年8月9日报道，美国政府的一项最新预测显示，今年美国原油产量的增长速度将快于此前预期，这将为因沙特阿拉伯减产而紧张的石油市场提供额外原油供应。

根据美国能源信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度报告，高于预期的单井产能和不断上涨的原油价格，将帮助美国在今年将原油日产量从之前预测的1260万桶提高到历史新高的1280万桶。去年，美国原油平均日产量约为1190万桶。

在欧佩克+为支撑油价而减产后，美国额外原油产量将有助于缓解供不应求的市场。欧佩克实际领导人沙特阿拉伯最近将其再减少100万桶原油日产量的协议延长了一个月，使之原油产量降至多年来的最低水平。

明年美国和全球的原油产量预计都将进一步增加。EIA表示，2024年，全球原油日产量将增加到1.03亿桶，比今年日增170万桶。其中超过70%的增长预计将来自非欧佩克国家，以美国、巴西、加拿大、圭亚那和挪威为首。EIA表示，明年美国的原油日产量将攀升至1310万桶。

与此同时，EIA表示，美国今年的成品油消费量将低于此前的预期。由于美国航空旅行热潮开始失去动力，美国第三季度的航空燃料使用量将比之前的预测减少4%。EIA对美国今年第三季度和全年汽油和柴油消费量的预测也进行了下调。

尽管如此，由于天然气液体使用量的增加，EIA对美国今年原油总需求的预测有所上调。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

USA Oil Output to Hit Record This Year

US oil production this year will rise faster than previously expected, providing additional crude supplies to a market that has tightened because of Saudi Arabian output cuts, according to a new government forecast.

Higher-than-expected well productivity and rising crude prices will help boost US production to a record 12.8 million barrels a day in 2023, up from a previous forecast of 12.6 million, according to a monthly report from the US Energy Information Administration released Tuesday. The US averaged about 11.9 million barrels a day in 2022.

The additional US production would help supply a market that has tightened after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies cut output to prop up prices. Cartel leader Saudi Arabia recently extended its 1 million barrel per day production cuts for another month, sending its output to the lowest in years.

Production in both the US and globally is forecast to increase further next year. World output will grow to 103 million barrels a day in 2024, up 1.7 million barrels per day from this year, the EIA said. Over 70% of that growth is expected to come from non-OPEC countries, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway. US output will climb to 13.1 million barrels a day next year, the agency said.

Meanwhile, US consumption of refined products this year will be lower than previously expected, the EIA said. The country will use 4% less jet fuel in the third quarter than in its prior forecast as the US air travel boom starts to lose steam. The agency’s forecasts for gasoline and diesel consumption also were adjusted lower for both the third quarter and full year. 

Still, the EIA’s forecast for total oil demand in the US this year was increased because of the growing use of natural gas liquids.