据油价网2023年6月20日报道，根据来自加拿大能源监管机构周二发布的新模型显示，到2050年前，净零世界将使化石燃料消耗从2021年的水平减少65%。

加拿大能源监管局(CER)周二发布了一份新报告，其中包括该监管机构对加拿大能源未来的首次研究，这份报告以净零情景为基准。

这份新报告称，如果世界确实能够实现2050年的气候净零目标，那么全球化石燃料的使用量将在2021年至2050年期间下降65%。CER表示，这将导致全球原油价格在2030年前跌至35美元/桶，到2050年跌至24美元/桶。

特别是对加拿大来说，在这种价格情况下，加拿大的原油产量将在两年内达到峰值，到2050年前，加拿大的原油产量将减少到120万桶/天，这一数字是2022年的四分之一。这只是CER提出的模型之一，该模型假设需要付出额外的努力才能在2050年前达到净零排放。

CER还提出了另外两种情景。第一种情景假设加拿大到2050年前实现净零排放，而亚洲两大消费国不会——到2050年，油价将达到每桶60美元。在这种情况下，加拿大的原油产量将下降22%。

另一种情况假设在现有水平上不采取任何措施实现净零排放。在这种情况下，加拿大的原油产量将在2035年达到峰值，到2050年前将增至610万桶/天。  

这份报告没有说明应该采取什么步骤来实现净零排放目标，但CER首席经济学家Jean-Denis Charlebois 告诉记者，这是一个“对加拿大来说非常雄心勃勃和具有挑战性的目标”，并补充说，这将需要“每个行业，每个省份，每个人”都来发挥作用。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Global Fossil Fuel Use To Sink 65% by 2050: CER

A net-zero world will reduce fossil fuel consumption by 65% by 2050 from 2021 levels, according to new modeling from Canada’s energy regulator published on Tuesday.

Canada Energy Regulator (CER) published a new report on Tuesday that included the regulator’s first look into Canada’s long-term energy future that assumes the net-zero scenario as a baseline.

If the world is indeed able to achieve its 2050 net-zero climate targets, global fossil fuel use will fall by 65 percent between 2021 and 2050, the new report said. This would trigger a freefall in global crude oil prices to as low as $35 per barrel by 2030, and as low as $24 per barrel by 2050, CER said.

For Canada specifically, this price scenario has Canada’s peak oil production just two years away and would curtail it to 1.2 million bpd by 2050—a figure that is one-quarter of what it was last year. This is just one of the CER’s proposed models, and one that assumes additional efforts will be made to reach Net-Zero by 2050.

CER proposed two other scenarios as well. The first of these scenarios assumes Canada reaches net-zero by 2050 but the two countries in Asia don’t—sending oil prices to $60 per barrel through 2050. In that scenario, Canada’s oil production falls by 22 percent.

The other scenario assumes no efforts are made to reach net zero beyond what is already in place. In that case, Canada’s production would peak in 2035, and rise to 6.1 million bpd by 2050.

The report did not go into what steps should be taken to reach the Net-Zero goal, but CER chief economist Jean-Denis Charlebois told reports that it was a “very ambitious and challenging goal to meet for Canada,” adding that it would take “every industry, every province, everyone” to make a difference.