据路透社5月9日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)周二在其《短期能源展望》(STEO)中表示，美国天然气产量将在2023年升至历史新高，而需求将下降。

EIA预计，干气产量将从2022年创纪录的981.3亿立方英尺/天增至2023年的1010.9亿立方英尺/天，2024年增至1012.4亿立方英尺/天。

该机构还预计，2023年国内天然气消费量将从2022年的创纪录的885.3亿桶/天降至875.4亿桶/天，2024年将降至860.5亿桶/天。

如果预测正确，2024年将是自2015年以来石油产量首次连续四年增长，这也将是自2006年以来需求首次连续两年下降。

对2023年的最新预测高于EIA 4月份预测的1008.7亿立方英尺/天的供应量和873.7亿立方英尺/天的需求量。

该机构预测，美国液化天然气(LNG)的日平均出口量将在2023年达到121.1亿立方英尺，2024年达到127.3亿立方英尺，高于2022年创纪录的105.9亿立方英尺。

2023年的LNG预测高于4月份EIA预测的120.8亿立方英尺/天。

EIA预计，随着天然气和可再生能源取代燃煤电厂，美国煤炭产量将从2022年的5.972亿短吨（1短吨=0.907吨）降至2023年的5.771亿短吨，为2020年以来的最低水平，2024年将降至4.912亿短吨，为1963年以来的最低水平。

随着天然气需求减少和电力生产商减少煤炭燃烧，EIA预计化石燃料的二氧化碳排放量将从2022年的49.64亿吨降至2023年的48.30亿吨和2024年的48.07亿吨。

相比之下，2020年为45.8亿吨，是1983年以来的最低水平，因为疫情抑制了能源需求。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. NATGAS OUTPUT TO HIT RECORD HIGH IN 2023, DEMAND TO FALL

U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 101.09 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.24 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.13 bcfd in 2022.

The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.54 bcfd in 2023 and 86.05 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.53 bcfd in 2022.

If correct, 2024 would be the first time that output rises for four years in a row since 2015. It would also be the first time that demand declines for two years in a row since 2006.

The latest projections for 2023 were higher than the EIA's April forecast of 100.87 bcfd for supply and 87.37 bcfd for demand.

The agency forecast that average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.11 bcfd in 2023 and 12.73 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.59 bcfd in 2022.

That 2023 LNG forecast was higher than the 12.08 bcfd EIA forecast in April.

EIA projected U.S. coal production would fall from 597.2 million short tons in 2022 to 577.1 million short tons in 2023, the lowest since 2020, and 491.2 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, as natural gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.

As gas demand eases and power producers burn less coal, EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.964 billion tonnes in 2022 to 4.830 billion tonnes in 2023 and 4.807 billion tonnes in 2024.

That compares with 4.580 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983 because the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand for energy.