全球范围内的原油供应正在收紧

伍德麦肯兹今年早些时候报告称，全球上游投资将继续增长，但其中很大一部分上游投资增长与通胀有关

去年的能源危机可能已经显著缓解，但尚未结束

据油价网2023年4月11日报道，旧的一年的结束和新的一年的开始通常是一个充满预测的时刻，预测将影响特定行业的这一年的趋势。石油和天然气行业也不例外：去年12月和今年1月充斥着对新的一年的预测、预言和展望。

到了4月，人们通常会清楚哪些预测是准确的，哪些是过早的、不准确的或完全错误的。以下是今年推动全球油气行业发展的5个明显的趋势，至少在今年年底之前，它们可能会主导全球整个油气行业。

1.供应紧张

尽管交易商对全球经济状况相当担忧，但大多数投资银行和能源咨询公司仍然预测2023年油价将走高，这是有原因的。

这个原因被称为供应，对看涨价格预测的解释是，全球范围内原油供应正在收紧。由于行业外因素导致油价暴跌，欧佩克+最近决定每天再减产116万桶原油，这是供应走向紧张的一个例子，但不是唯一的一个例子。

美国页岩行业在过去十年经历了真正的繁荣，但现在美国页岩行业已经转变为一个更加节俭、效率更高的行业。页岩繁荣在去年被多次提及，没有理由相信这些特别报道是夸大其词的。

只要价格合适，美国页岩油产量将继续增长，但不会如同此前行业认为的那样快速增长。

2.通胀导致的更高投资

尽管现实供应和人为控制因素都在收紧，但今年的全球石油需求预计将高于去年。国际能源署(IEA)预计，今年全球石油需求将达到创纪录水平，并在今年年底超过供应。油气行业正在准备对此做出回应。

伍德麦肯兹今年早些时候曾报告称，全球上游投资将延续去年开始的反弹势头，今年将达到大约4700亿美元。然而，伍德麦肯兹指出，全球上游投资大约一半的增长将是成本上升的结果，而不是出于产量增长的更大雄心。

换句话说，无论需求前景如何，政府和环保激进组织都在不断加大力度，要求减少石油和天然气产量，因此，石油巨头及体量较小的行业参与者都坚定地走在降本增效的道路上。

3.专注低碳

正是由于这种日益增长的压力，石油和天然气行业正在转向多元化的低碳能源，包括碳捕获。美国石油巨头尤其如此：雪佛龙公司最近宣布了在该领域的增长计划，埃克森美孚公司甚至更进一步，表示总有一天其低碳业务将超过石油和天然气，成为收入贡献者。

埃克森美孚公司低碳业务部门负责人丹·阿曼本月早些时候向英国《金融时报》表示：“为了成功实现能源转型，必须在经济上可行，这是我们工作的一个重要组成部分，也是我们建设这项业务的一部分。”他补充称，低碳业务部门的价值可能会增加到数千亿美元，令埃克森美孚公司的传统业务相形见绌。

在欧洲，石油巨头仍专注于风能、太阳能、氢气、电动汽车充电以及其他他们多年来一直关注的转型活动。但他们也在向碳捕获和储存技术投去青睐目光。

4.欧佩克日益增加的影响力

几年前，分析人士认为，由于美国页岩的出现，欧佩克正在迅速失去其实用性。然后出现了欧佩克+，沙特阿拉伯与产能大国联手，这个更大的原油出口组织在全球石油供应中所占的比例甚至超过了欧佩克过去单独的份额。

正如扩大后的这个重要组织最新举动所显示的那样，欧佩克+完全准备好了，并且愿意为自己的利益而操纵市场。这样做没有任何障碍，因为欧佩克+是由国有企业组成的。这些石油公司没有投资者和各类激进“环保人士”的压力。

值得注意的是，没有政府压力，因为所有的欧佩克+成员国都非常清楚石油收入的好处，不会以能源转型更高目标的名义放弃石油收入。

5.天然气正在卷土重来

如果去年的情况还不够清楚，那么今年的情况将会很清楚：天然气正在卷土重来。

欧洲的天然气短缺在很大程度上导致了能源危机，迫使决策者认识到，转型计划固然不错，但人们现在就需要能源，而不是到2050年需要能源。

这一认识极大地推动了美国新增液化天然气产能，因为美国已经成为欧洲最大的液化燃料供应国，取代了管道天然气。

天然气资源开发在非洲也得到了更多的鼓励和支持，这也是欧洲的另一种能源来源。有人可能会说，天然气正在经历复兴。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

5 Trends Driving The Oil And Gas Industry In 2023

·     Supply of crude oil is tightening on a global level.

·     Wood Mackenzie reported earlier this year that global upstream investments will continue to rise, but much of it is inflation related.

·     Last year’s energy crisis may have eased significantly but hasn’t been concluded yet.

The end of a year and the start of a new one is usually a time fraught with forecasts about the trends that will shape the year for a particular industry. Oil and natural gas is no exception: December and January abound in forecasts, predictions, and outlooks for the new year.

By April, it has usually become clear which forecasts were on the money and which were either premature, lay, or plain wrong. Here are five trends that are clearly evident and likely to dominate the industry until at least the end of the year.

Tight supply

There is a reason most investment banks and energy consultancies keep forecasting higher prices going forward in 2023 despite considerable worry among traders about the state of the global economy.

The reason is called supply and the explanation for the bullish price forecasts is that supply of crude oil is tightening on a global level. OPEC+’s recent decision to reduce production by another 1.16 million barrels daily amid a price slump driven by factors outside of the industry is one example of where supply is headed but it’s not the only one.

The U.S. shale industry that went through a veritable boom during the last decade has transformed into a much more frugal, much more efficiency-oriented industry. The shale boom was proclaimed over last year, repeatedly, and there is little reason to believe these particular reports are exaggerated.

U.S. shale oil output will continue rising—as long as the price is right—but it won’t be rising at what the industry previously saw as its usual fast pace.

2.   Higher investments... because of inflation

While supply tightens both organically and artificially, demand for oil is being forecast at higher levels this year than last. The International Energy Agency expects oil demand to hit a record this year and exceed supply in late 2023. And the industry is preparing to respond.

Wood Mackenzie reported earlier this year that global upstream investments will continue their rebound that began last year, hitting some $470 billion this year. However, about half of that increase, Wood Mac noted, would be the result of higher costs rather than greater ambitions in production growth.

In other words, Big Oil and its smaller sector players are firmly on the path of frugality, which is hardly surprising in light of the constantly intensifying push from governments and activist organizations to produce less oil and gas, whatever the demand outlook.

Focus on low carbon

It is because of this growing pressure that the oil and gas industry is turning towards a diversification into low-carbon energy, including carbon capture. That’s particularly true of the U.S. majors: Chevron recently announced growth plans in that area and Exxon went even further, saying one day its low-carbon business could overtake oil and gas as income contributor.

“In order for the energy transition to be successful, it has to be made economically viable, and that’s a big part of our job and building this business,” Dan Ammann, the head of Exxon’s low-carbon business division told the FT earlier this month, adding that this business division could be increase in value to hundreds of billions of dollars and eclipse Exxon’s traditional operations.

In Europe, the majors are still focusing on wind, solar, hydrogen, EV charging and the rest of the transition activities they had been focusing on for years. But they, too are opening up to carbon capture and storage.

OPEC’s growing influence

A few years ago analysts argued that because of the advent of U.S. shale, OPEC is losing relevance, fast. Then came OPEC+, Saudi Arabia teamed up with the largger producer, and the larger organization came to account for an even higher portion of global oil supply than OPEC on its own used to.

As the latest move by the extended cartel shows, that organization is perfectly ready and willing to pull the market’s strings to its advantage. It has no obstacles to doing that because OPEC+ is made up of state-owned companies. There is no investor activist pressure on these companies.

Notably, there is no government pressure because all the OPEC+ governments are too aware of the benefits of oil revenues to just drop them in the name of a higher goal in the form of the energy transition.

5.   Gas in the spotlight

In case last year didn’t make things clear enough, this one will: natural gas is making a comeback.

All it took was an energy crunch caused in substantial part by a gas shortage in Europe to force decision-makers into the realization that transition plans are all very well but people need energy right now, not in 2050.

This realization is giving a major push to new U.S. LNG capacity since the country has become Europe’s biggest supplier of the liquefied fuel that is replacing pipeline deliveries.

Gas resource development is also getting more encouragement and support in Africa, too—another alternative source of energy for Europe. Gas, one might say, is experiencing a renaissance.