据路透社1月10日消息，可持续发展咨询公司奥雅纳和经济咨询公司牛津经济研究院最近在一份报告中表示，到2050年，帮助世界向净零排放转变的行业可能为全球经济带来10.3万亿美元的价值。

从热浪到洪水，极端天气事件不仅代价高昂，而且越来越多地在全球范围内引发动荡，迫使政府和行业寻求减少温室气体排放，减缓气候变化。

牛津经济研究院首席执行官阿德里安·库珀在一份声明中表示：“作为经济学家，我们必须诚实地面对减缓气候变化将耗资巨大的事实，但向碳中和的全球经济转型也带来了令人信服的机遇。”

分析显示，到本世纪中叶，有助于实现《巴黎协定》净零目标的碳中和商品和服务的新兴市场将价值10.3万亿美元，约占预计国内生产总值(GDP)的5%。

报告指出：“这包括电动汽车制造、可再生能源发电、清洁能源装备制造、可再生燃料和绿色金融对GDP的直接贡献，再加上全球供应链支持的活动。”

报告还显示，随着工业在全球能源供应危机中转向清洁能源，由此造成的中断将为能够迅速适应不断变化的需求的公司创造新的竞争机会。

奥雅纳公司和牛津经济研究院发现，与气候变化没有得到遏制或应对不力的世界相比，绿色转型将导致从减缓气候变化中获得巨大的生产力提高。

牛津经济研究院的一项情景分析表明，如果不采取行动，到2050年全球GDP将损失约5%。报告称，2021年，与天气有关的经济活动中断造成的损失已经达到2330亿美元。

奥雅纳全球战略技能负责人布赖斯·理查德表示：“这份报告表明，绿色转型不是全球经济的负担，而是带来更大、更包容繁荣的重大机遇。”

庞晓华 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Green industries could be worth $10.3 T to economy by 2050

Industries helping the world shift to net-zero emissions could be worth $10.3 T to the global economy by 2050, sustainable development consultancy Arup and economics advisory firm Oxford Economics said in a report on Tuesday.

From heatwaves to floods, extreme weather events are not only costly but increasingly causing upheaval across the globe, pushing governments and industries to seek to cut greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change.

"As economists, we have to be honest about the fact that mitigating climate change will be expensive," Oxford Economics' Chief Executive Adrian Cooper said in a statement. "But the transition to a carbon-neutral global economy also presents compelling opportunities."

The analysis showed emerging new markets for carbon-neutral goods and services that help reach the Paris Agreement net-zero target will be worth $10.3 trillion, or about 5% of projected gross domestic product (GDP), by mid-century.

"This includes the direct contribution to GDP of electric vehicles manufacturing, renewable power generation, clean energy equipment manufacturing, renewable fuels and green finance; plus the activity supported across global supply chains," the report stated.

It also showed, as industries shift to clean power amid a global energy supply crisis, that resulting disruptions will create new competitive opportunities for companies able to adapt quickly to changing demands.

Arup and Oxford Economics found the green transition would lead to substantial productivity gains from climate change mitigation compared to "a world in which climate change has been left unchecked, or poorly tackled".

A scenario analysis by Oxford Economics suggested a failure to act could damage global GDP by around 5% by 2050. In 2021, it said the cost of weather-related interruptions to economic activity had already reached $233 B.

"This report shows the green transition is not a burden on the global economy, but a substantial opportunity to bring about a greater and more inclusive prosperity," Arup Global Strategy Skills Leader Brice Richard said.