据美国油价网2022年6月27日报道，根据路透社发表的一篇报告，欧佩克+将降低其对今年石油市场过剩的预测。  

这份报告是在周二召开的欧佩克+联合技术委员会会议之前准备的。报告显示，欧佩克+集团目前预计今年石油市场每日过剩量将降至100万桶，低于此前预估的140万桶。

原油过剩预测的降低是由于欧佩克+集团继续在其配额下生产原油。欧佩克+同意在5月份日增43.2万桶原油产量。但欧佩克+集团未能实现这一目标，比预期每天低270万桶。今年6月，欧佩克+集团再次同意将原油产量再日增43.2万桶，但业内普遍认为，欧佩克+成员国也无法实现这一配额目标。 

对于7月和8月，欧佩克+集团更加雄心勃勃，更大幅度地提高原油产量目标，实际上是将9月的增产计划提前到了7月和8月。

如果欧佩克+确实在他们的估计中使用了这些产量数据，欧佩克+的持续减产将减少任何预期的市场过剩。

一直以来，欧佩克在减产协议上最大的落后者之一是尼日利亚，该国实际上在5月份的产量有所下降，而不是按照配额增加产量。结果是实际产量比配额每天少50万桶。但尼日利亚石油部长上周表示，该国将能够在8月底前实现其欧佩克产量配额。 

如果尼日利亚能在8月底达到产量配额，届时欧佩克+产量配额将完全收回，这将大大增加欧佩克+集团所认为的市场过剩。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

OPEC+ Sees Oil Market Surplus Shrinking To 1 Million Bpd

OPEC+ is slimming down its projections for an oil market surplus this year, according to a report seen by Reuters.

The report, which was prepared ahead of the OPEC+ JTC meeting that will take place on Tuesday, showed that the OPEC+ group now sees the oil market surplus at 1 million bpd this year—down from their previous estimates of 1.4 million bpd.

The lowering of crude oil surplus projections comes as the OPEC+ group continues to produce under its quota. OPEC+ agreed to increase its production in May by 432,000 bpd. The group was unable to reach this target, undershooting it by 2.7 million bpd. For June, the OPEC+ group again agreed to lift its production by another 432,000 bpd, but the general consensus in the industry is that they will be unable to meet that quota too.

For July and August, the OPEC+ group got even more ambitious, raising their output targets by an even greater extent, essentially rolling the September increase that they had planned into July and August.

But OPEC+’s continued underproduction will shrink any anticipated market surplus, if indeed OPEC+ is using these production figures in their estimates.

One of the biggest OPEC laggards in the production cut deal all along has been Nigeria, which actually had its production decrease in May instead of increase per the quota. The result was a half a million barrel a day shortfall in its actual production vs. its quota. But Nigeria’s oil minister last week said that it would be able to meet its OPEC production quota by the end of August.

If Nigeria manages to reach its production quota by the end of August when the OPEC+ quotas have been fully rolled back, it would go a long way to adding to that market surplus that the OPEC+ group sees.