据世界石油网报道，全球领先数据分析公司GlobalData 4月8日发布的统计数据显示，美国原油产量已从第一波疫情和短暂价格战期间的低点大幅回升。 

据GlobalData称，美国今年2月的原油平均日产量约为1150万桶，比2020年5月的970万桶日产量增加了19%。

根据GlobalData的最新报告“美国本土2021下半年非常规产量”，美国本土页岩远景区的石油产量在2020年5月至2022年2月期间增长了25%。 然而，这个日产量仍比2019年12月疫情前水平的930万桶低8%左右。

GlobalData油气分析师普拉尼克表示：“由于大多数国家放松了此前实施的限制措施，未来几个月全球原油需求预计将上升。”“由于需求的增长，美国页岩油产量预计也将进一步增长，并有可能在2023年前达到疫情前的水平。”

2020年的行业低迷迫使运营商削减资本支出，这也导致了美国在用钻机数量的大幅下降。最近，基准西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货在2022年2月的平均价格为每桶91.64美元。 美国能源信息署(EIA)预计，今年3月，WTI期货均价将达到113美元，并可能维持在这一区间，这取决于军事冲突的持续时间。 WTI的这些高水平将加速增加美国页岩的在用钻机数量，截至2022年2月，美国页岩在用钻机数量在一年内增加了近60%，达到了574部。  

普拉尼克说：“由于预计今年全球石油需求将超过供应，油价甚至在军事冲突开始前就呈上升趋势。自那以后，由于对西方制裁的担忧，包括石油巨头英国石油公司、壳牌公司和埃克森美孚公司在内的几家公司决定退出大国石油和天然气行业。 由于当前的高油价使得页岩油钻井活动具有很高的利润，一些公司可能会将他们的资本(之前分配给大国地区的资产)转移到美国的页岩上。 这将进一步提升美国本土的油气评价和开发活动。”  

李峻 编译自 世界石油网

原文如下：

Globaldata: U.S. shale production should stay robust following strong 2021 recovery

Crude oil production in the U.S. has recovered considerably from the lows seen during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the brief price war，says GlobalData, a data and analytics company.

The country produced approximately 11.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of crude oil in February 2022, a 19% gain over the May 2020 production of 9.7 MMbpd, GlobalData says.

According to GlobalData’s latest report, “Unconventional Production in the US Lower 48, H2-2021,” oil production from the U.S. Lower 48 (L48) shale plays has risen by 25% during May 2020 to February 2022. However, it is still around 8% below the pre-pandemic levels of 9.3 MMbpd produced in December 2019. 

“As most countries have eased COVID-19 restrictions that were in place earlier, global crude oil demand is anticipated to rise over the coming months,” said Ravindra Puranik, oil & gas analyst at GlobalData. “In line with this demand growth, the U.S. shale oil production is also expected to grow further and could potentially reach the pre-pandemic levels by 2023.”

The industry downturn in 2020 had compelled operators to cut down their capital spending, which also led to a significant drop in the US rig count. Recently, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were averaging $91.64 in February 2022. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects WTI futures to average at $113 in March 2022 and possibly remain in this range depending on the duration of the ongoing military conflict. These high levels of WTI would accelerate rig additions in the US shales that have risen nearly 60% in one year to 574 as of February 2022.

“Oil prices were on an upward trend even before the start of the war as global demand was projected to outweigh supply in 2022,” Puranik said. “Since then, several companies, including oil majors BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil have decided to exit from the Russian oil and gas industry amid concerns over Western sanctions. Some of these companies may divert their capital—which was earlier allocated for assets—to the U.S. shales as the prevailing high prices make shale oil drilling highly profitable. This could further lift the hydrocarbon appraisal and development activity in the L48.”