据世界石油1月21日报道，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)也在预计今年晚些时候原油价格将达到每桶100美元的银行之列。

根据给客户的一份研究报告显示，该银行预计库存在2021年大幅下降后，到今年年底将进一步下滑。 备用供应能力将从目前的每天340万桶缩减至200万桶。 随着绿色倡议的进展，预计到本世纪二十年代末，为提高石油行业供应能力而进行的投资将减少30%。

此前，该银行认为，一旦油价接近每桶90美元，需求就开始下降。现在，包括martinrats在内的分析师在报告中称，由于石油产品的消费具有弹性，该公司预计损耗将处于更高水平。例如，到今年夏天，航空燃料需求预计将增加150万桶/天，而谷歌Mobility的数据显示，与去年相比，航空需求大幅增加。

本周稍早，全球最大的投资银行之一高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，预计布伦特原油价格也将因供应严重不足，在第三季触及100美元。

郝芬 译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude at $100 by Q3

Add Morgan Stanley to the list of banks expecting crude to reach $100 a barrel later this year. 

The bank expects stockpiles to slide even lower by the end of the year, after falling substantially in 2021, according to a research note to clients. Spare supply capacity will shrink to 2 million barrels a day from the current 3.4 million. Investment to boost supply capacity in the oil industry is expected to shrivel 30% by the end of this decade as green initiatives progress.

Previously, the bank saw demand erosion starting once the global benchmark neared $90 a barrel. Now, it sees attrition happening at a higher level, because consumption in oil products has been resilient, the analysts, including Martijn Rats said in the note. For instance, jet demand is projected to grow 1.5 million barrels a day by this summer, while Google Mobility data reflects a sharp increase from the year prior.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s top investment banks, said it saw Brent prices reaching $100 also in the third quarter because of a large supply deficit.