据烃加工新闻6月9日消息称，咨询公司伍德麦肯兹表示，到2050年，全球炼油行业潜在的低碳（绿色或蓝色）氢需求可能达到5000万吨/年。

炼油行业是最大的氢气市场之一，2020年约3200万吨/年，占全球氢需求的30%-35%。加氢处理和加氢裂化是炼油部门消耗90%以上氢的主要炼油工艺，它们分别用于降低成品中的硫和提高运输燃料的产量。

然而，炼油过程中65%以上的氢需求是由催化重整器和乙烯裂化装置的副产物氢来满足的；这是不可能被低碳氢取代的。如果出现氢气短缺，则可以通过天然气蒸汽甲烷重整（灰色）和煤炭（棕色）生产氢气，这两种方式合计占炼厂氢气需求的32%左右。

伍德麦肯兹研究主管Sushant Gupta说：“如果低碳氢具有成本竞争力，并且随着时间的推移政策支持不断发展，低碳氢有潜力取代专用氢作为原料，使全球炼油厂在范围1和范围2内的整体碳排放量减少10%即1亿吨/年。”

曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工新闻

原文如下：

Low-carbon hydrogen demand in refining could reach 50 Mtpy by 2050

Potential low-carbon (green or blue) hydrogen demand from the global refining sector could reach 50 MMtpy by 2050, says Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business. 

Oil refining is one of the largest markets for hydrogen, accounting for about 32 Mtpy or 30-35% of global hydrogen demand in 2020. Hydrotreating and hydrocracking are the major refinery processes consuming over 90% of hydrogen in the refining sector, and they are used to reduce sulphur from finished products, and to increase yield of transport fuels, respectively. 

However, more than 65% of hydrogen demand in refining is met by hydrogen supplied as a by-product from catalytic reformers and ethylene crackers; this is unlikely to be replaced by low-carbon hydrogen. Any hydrogen shortfall is met by on-purpose production from gas-based steam methane reforming (grey) and coal (brown), together accounting for about 32% of refinery hydrogen demand. 

Wood Mackenzie research director Sushant Gupta said: “Low-carbon hydrogen has the potential to replace on-purpose hydrogen as a feedstock if low-carbon hydrogen becomes cost competitive and policy support develops over time，reduction in overall scope 1 and 2 global refinery carbon emissions.”